The problems with making a prediction is some smart-arse will come along after the event and mock it if it never happened and that is especially true with anything related to climate change because as we all know, there are some proper ignoramuses who bizarrely refuse to believe that the climate is changing because all that mountain of evidence isn't proof enough for them but then they are probably the sort of people who would need directions to make sure they are sat on the toilet the right way, so what ya gonna do?
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have stuck their head above the parapet and have predicted that there is an 85% chance that due to favourable conditions for hurricane formation between the coast of Africa to the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, there will be 17 to 25 named storms (average 14), with 8 to 13 becoming hurricanes (average 7) and 4 to 7 will become major hurricanes (average 3).
The Hurricane season lasts from 1 June until the end of November and Hurricanes rated category 3 and above on the Saffir-Simpson scale are classified as major and the boffins believe that due to record high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and La Nina will help storms develop.
The NOAA have a good record in predicting Hurricanes, last year they predicted 14 to 21 storms and there was 20 but before the Climate Change deniers get their knickers in a bunch, Climate Change does not create more Hurricanes, it just takes the ones which are there and ramps them up so it could be a Tropical Depression which gets an extra kick from the warmer seas and develops into a Hurricane or what would have been a Category 2 Hurricane tips into a Category 4.
To go along with more powerful hurricanes, another trend the NOAA has noticed by comparing Worldwide Hurricanes over the last 70 years is that Hurricanes are moving slower so are dumping more rain so increasing flooding because anyone who attended science classes will remember being told, warmer air holds more moisture and Climate Change is doing a great job of warming the air.
Obviously i will be back in December to assess how the predictions have got on but if you are directly in the path of one of the 8-13 Hurricanes or 3 major ones then hold onto something and check in once you have your wifi, house or street back again.
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oh yeah, let's see if they get it right finally. worked for a top 5 insurance company in the US for 41 years. noaa forecast that the 80's would be a high hurricane decade. it wasn't. then they said the 90's would be. it wasn't. then they said the 00's would be. not. then they said the 10's would be. not. maybe, they will finally be right...
ReplyDeleteI will be checking in December.
ReplyDeleteone year out of 40 is hardly worth bragging about...
ReplyDeleteThey got it right last year
ReplyDeletedid they?
ReplyDeleteThat what it says in my post. Miss that bit did you?
ReplyDeletei don't trust much of what you post. you are a journalist. alledgely
ReplyDeleteSo you missed it then.
ReplyDeletei did miss it.
ReplyDeleteso you think that was good huh?
first, how many years have there been fewer than 12, or more than 21? i'll guess under 12 and over 21 is rare, so they artificially increased their odds of being "correct" significantly. The prediction (14 to 21) likely covers 90% of years.
second, there was a spread of 7 on a range of 21. in other words, they gave themselves a 33% band of success. you think that is good?
also, instead of a no lose prediction using a range of 33%, they should have used multiple ranges. Something like:
ReplyDelete- 5% chance of 21
- 10% chance of 20
- 15% Chance of 19
- 25% chance of 18
- 20% chance of 17
- 10% chance of 16
- 10% chance of 15
- 5% chance of 14
that would have been useful and it would reveal that they almost guessing...
how do we know that climate change doesn't create more hurricanes? we don't.
ReplyDeletehow do we know that climate change makes hurricanes more powerful? we don't.
the people that know nothing about modeling and nothing about climate can only say, "scientists have created models that predict bigger hurricanes. i don't understand why, but the scientists are experts and are therefore beyond disputation, even by other scientists".
the scientists had to switch from more hurricanes to stronger hurricanes because when compared to the average number of hurricanes, the models predicting more hurricanes fell flat on their face.
so, now they say hurricanes are bigger, but how do they prove that. they cannot prove that. we don't know that a cat 5 would only have been cat 4...
a good journalist (a significantly misanthropic person) that hates capitalism, individual liberty, wealthy people, and companies would support these scientists.
a good journalist would never say, "these scientists get their funding from government entities that want to use climate change as a lever for more control over commerce, energy, transportation, agriculture, and most other aspects of society; so these scientists are telling the government what they want to hear".
a good journalist would say, "scientists can't be corrupted by money, power, or fame like business people; and scientists can't be challenged because they are experts; and if a majority of scientists support an idea then the scientists that disagree with the majority lack credibility".