Bank Windfall Tax Coming Soon?

Ahead of a crucial budget for Andy Burnham, the idea of a Windfall tax on the banks has been floated and an opinion poll by BMG Research shows that 50% of voters support it while only 13% oppose it and as a windfall tax on banks would raise anywhere from £2 billion to £19 billion per year depending entirely on how the Government go about it, you can see why.
Seems a no brainer than as the big four banks (HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds and Natwest) made over £50bn in profits in the last financial year according to the TUC and that was mostly off the back of not passing on the higher interest rate to savers whilst inflating mortgages by the same amount so screw 'em most people will say, make them pay more.
The expected move in by the Government echo's similar efforts in some of Europe to make banks pay more tax to help offset the rising cost of living so how did they do it and what was the results?
Spain raised €3bn over two years from 2022 by putting a 4.8% tax on any profits over €800m and then extended it for another three so we can assume it worked well for them.
Lithuania rolled out its own windfall tax on banks in 2023 and used a 60% tax on any profits that were 50% higher than the four year average which sounds complicated but the €250m a year it brings in is a welcome boost to Lithuanian coffers and Czechia announced its own three-year windfall tax on banks and set it at 60% tax on any profits that were more than 120% the previous four-year average but the €1.23 billion it was expected to raise never materialised although the €41m was gratefully received but was put down to the Czech Government's expectations being set too high.
In Italy they have introduced and then tinkered with a Windfall Tax on banks by first introducing a 40% tax on the banks interest margin which would have raised €4.9bn but was then watered it down to banks facing a choice of paying a tax equivalent to 0.26% of their balance sheets or setting aside 0.75% in reserves to cushion any economic shock although it is now being amended yet again to a flat 5% tax on the profits of Italy’s 10 largest banks and an expected €2.5bn.
So what is being planned for the UK? Financiers expect the UK’s four largest banks to bring in £60bn in profits for 2026 and using calculations by campaign group Positive Money, the UK could raise £10.9bn this year from adopting Czechia’s model, £6.95bn by following Spain and £2.2bn by following in Lithuania’s footsteps.
For some reason they didn't give a figure for following in Italy's footsteps but  that could be because by they time they put down their calculators, it would have changed again but for everyone who has been charged £20 by the bank for them sending you a letter to tell you that your account is overdrawn, taking anything back off the bankers would be fine by them.