Tuesday, 27 November 2018

Numbers Against Theresa May

With the House of Commons Brexit vote on December 11th, by the 12th we will have either a deal, no-deal, general election, second referendum or a new Prime Minister but for the next two weeks Theresa May is going to have to do some heavy lifting to get her way with her Brexit deal because very few people seem to like it.   
With an already wafer thin majority and Arlene Foster's Northern Irish DUP already saying it won't be supporting the deal, she gazing around forlornly for the 318 votes she needs to get her deal through. 
Of her 317 Conservatives Members of Parliament, 57 have already said they will not support the current deal and a further eight have backed the People's Vote campaign calling for a second referendum so with the 10 DUP members she is 75 down straight away.
She could gaze lovingly at the Labour Party in her hunt for votes but they are hoping she fails so they can force a General Election so she may pick up some from Labour Hard Line Brexiters otherwise there isn't much point looking there.
The SNP and the Liberal Democrats are very pro-EU so she probably won't be picking up much support there nor will there be a helping hand from the six MPs from Plaid Cymru and the Greens, who will not support the deal.
If my maths is anywhere close (probably not but let's go with it anyway), the Prime Minister can depend on approximately 250-ish Yes's so she will have to persuade around 70-ish MP's to back her which is unlikely so things could get very interesting especially for the removal men who should keep 12th December free.

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