Psychologists have a political theory they have titled the Spiral of Silence which is a phenomenon where voters tell pollsters that they are likely to vote for one candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his or her opponent.
The theory became known as the Shy Tory Factor in the UK during the 1990s when Opinion polls put the unpopular Conservatives behind Labour in the 1992 election only for the Tories to trounce Labour by 8%.
The explanation was that a person is less likely to voice an true opinion if he feels that it is in the minority for fear of reprisals from the majority.
In America this is known as the Bradley effect, named after Tom Bradley who ran as the Democratic Party's candidate for Governor of California in 1982 and despite most polls showing Bradley with a significant as they went into the election, he inexplicably lost to his white challenger.
With the US election only days away, the possibility of the phenomenon raising its head is being considered by nervous Obama supporters and with reason when the results of the Democratic Primary elections are scrutinised.
In the New Hampshire, polls predicted a large Obama win over Hillary Clinton however, Clinton defeated Obama by three points.
Also up for consideration is the possibility of the reverse Bradley effect where those who have said that they won't vote for a black candidate then do so when in the privacy of the voting booth.
Obama still seems to be maintaining a healthy lead in the opinion polls i have looked at but if this Spiral of silence effect kicks in, the margin of error is suddenly much larger than anticipated.
Friday, 31 October 2008
Thursday, 30 October 2008
US Plans In Czech Rep Wobbling
The push by the Czech Republic to replace Britain as Americas fawning poodle in Europe has suffered a setback as the ruling parties got their bottoms smacked in the Czech Senate Elections by the less US orientated Social Democrat Party who are opposed to the planned stationing of the US radar base on Czech soil.
The good people of the Czech Republic have overwhelming rejected the plan for their country to become part of the George Bush missile defence system which has so angered Russia with good reason.
The US plan, which would also see interceptor missiles placed in Poland, is to protect Europe and America from future attacks from rogue nations such as Iran and is certainly not aimed at Russia according to the smirking bods in Washington despite it being placed directly on Russia's doorstep.
The Governing coalition now face the danger of imploding and facing an early election which would see them turfed out by the electorate and the plans for America siting missiles in Europe suffering a blow.
Poland's leaders are also coming under pressure to resist the US plan with Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski under threat of being unseated by an electorate where the majority are against Poland hosting the American missiles.
Maybe we will be adding two more leaders to the George W Bush effect that has already seen Tony Blair, José María Aznar and John Howard removed by the electorate or their own Party largely due to their associations with the toxic Texan.
The good people of the Czech Republic have overwhelming rejected the plan for their country to become part of the George Bush missile defence system which has so angered Russia with good reason.
The US plan, which would also see interceptor missiles placed in Poland, is to protect Europe and America from future attacks from rogue nations such as Iran and is certainly not aimed at Russia according to the smirking bods in Washington despite it being placed directly on Russia's doorstep.
The Governing coalition now face the danger of imploding and facing an early election which would see them turfed out by the electorate and the plans for America siting missiles in Europe suffering a blow.
Poland's leaders are also coming under pressure to resist the US plan with Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski under threat of being unseated by an electorate where the majority are against Poland hosting the American missiles.
Maybe we will be adding two more leaders to the George W Bush effect that has already seen Tony Blair, José María Aznar and John Howard removed by the electorate or their own Party largely due to their associations with the toxic Texan.
Monday, 27 October 2008
Economics The Third Reich Way
There is a new phrase being bandied about in financial circles, Keynesian Economics.
Apparently the theory put forward by John Maynard Keynes in the 1930's is just what we need to pull us out of the present recession and by all accounts the last time it was practised, it proved a resounding success although it seems that the advocates of the British economist are a bit reluctant to say too loudly exactly who the past Keynesian was.
Everyone was suffering in the Great Depression of the 1930's but the first country to pull itself out of the financial mire was Germany under a Nazi regime implementing John Milton-Keynes ideas of beating the downturn by Government spending on massive and expensive projects.
Obviously impressed, Hitler set about building thousands of miles of autobahns, created extensive factory's to build cheap family cars and generally dreamt up grandiose plans for rebuilding German cities.
It worked but of course the unswerving drive out of the depression led directly to the German Government financing the military machine that would later stomp across Europe but the point is, Keynes ideas worked so maybe the key to reviving our fortunes is to spend extravagantly on building projects instead of cutting back.
John Maynard-Keynes, the economist Fuhrers choose.
Apparently the theory put forward by John Maynard Keynes in the 1930's is just what we need to pull us out of the present recession and by all accounts the last time it was practised, it proved a resounding success although it seems that the advocates of the British economist are a bit reluctant to say too loudly exactly who the past Keynesian was.
Everyone was suffering in the Great Depression of the 1930's but the first country to pull itself out of the financial mire was Germany under a Nazi regime implementing John Milton-Keynes ideas of beating the downturn by Government spending on massive and expensive projects.
Obviously impressed, Hitler set about building thousands of miles of autobahns, created extensive factory's to build cheap family cars and generally dreamt up grandiose plans for rebuilding German cities.
It worked but of course the unswerving drive out of the depression led directly to the German Government financing the military machine that would later stomp across Europe but the point is, Keynes ideas worked so maybe the key to reviving our fortunes is to spend extravagantly on building projects instead of cutting back.
John Maynard-Keynes, the economist Fuhrers choose.
Sunday, 26 October 2008
US Widening Middle East Conflict
It is not easy to defend American foreign policy whoever it is under. Obama said a while back that he would go into Pakistan to hunt the Taliban whether the Pakistan Government gave him permission or not. Predictably a backlash against America pursued and intensified when innocent civilians were killed earlier this month in missile attacks on the Pakistan side of the border.
It is this arrogance emanating from the American leadership that it can just ride roughshod over any Government they wish that fans the flames of negativity and extremism.
Now four US military helicopters have struck an area of farms and factories five miles inside Syria's border, killing four adults and four children.
The White House and CIA declined to comment on reports of the attack but an Iraqi security source in Baghdad confirmed that eight people had been killed.
One has to ask are the Americans deliberately trying to widen the conflict or are they just being so arrogant that they believe they can just cross into any border and drop their deadly payloads?
The Pakistan Government recently passed a resolution proclaiming that: "the nation stands united against any American incursions and invasions of the homeland, and calls upon the government to deal with it effectively".
Pakistani ground troops have already opened fire at US helicopters, prompting American forces to fire back as we witness the frightening scenario of more countries being sucked into the conflict.
America recently condemned Russia for going into Georgia after Georgia attacked Russian civilians and yet it is happy to send its military into Syria and Pakistan, inflaming passions in an area where they are already running high.
The excuse already put forward is that foreign fighters were coming from Syria to attack American troops in Iraq but according to the Los Angeles Times, almost half of the foreign militants involved in attacks on US troops are from Saudi Arabia, embarrassingly an ally of the US.
The America military has to be strongly condemned for its actions in Pakistan and Syria because it is fast becoming the best recruitment Sargent that Al Queada ever had and deepens the hatred with unlawful tactics that shamefully, both men who are vying for the seat in the White House, have already said they would continue.
It is this arrogance emanating from the American leadership that it can just ride roughshod over any Government they wish that fans the flames of negativity and extremism.
Now four US military helicopters have struck an area of farms and factories five miles inside Syria's border, killing four adults and four children.
The White House and CIA declined to comment on reports of the attack but an Iraqi security source in Baghdad confirmed that eight people had been killed.
One has to ask are the Americans deliberately trying to widen the conflict or are they just being so arrogant that they believe they can just cross into any border and drop their deadly payloads?
The Pakistan Government recently passed a resolution proclaiming that: "the nation stands united against any American incursions and invasions of the homeland, and calls upon the government to deal with it effectively".
Pakistani ground troops have already opened fire at US helicopters, prompting American forces to fire back as we witness the frightening scenario of more countries being sucked into the conflict.
America recently condemned Russia for going into Georgia after Georgia attacked Russian civilians and yet it is happy to send its military into Syria and Pakistan, inflaming passions in an area where they are already running high.
The excuse already put forward is that foreign fighters were coming from Syria to attack American troops in Iraq but according to the Los Angeles Times, almost half of the foreign militants involved in attacks on US troops are from Saudi Arabia, embarrassingly an ally of the US.
The America military has to be strongly condemned for its actions in Pakistan and Syria because it is fast becoming the best recruitment Sargent that Al Queada ever had and deepens the hatred with unlawful tactics that shamefully, both men who are vying for the seat in the White House, have already said they would continue.
Saturday, 25 October 2008
Other People's Elections
"Why should we care who America votes in" said a colleague as she quickly flipped through the pages of the newspaper dedicated to the US election, "doesn't have any affect on us".
What my co-worker and others who are complaining about the amount of coverage given to the White House race don't seem to understand is that in this time of globalisation, what happens in the major nations DOES have an affect on all of us.
Whoever is running the Government in the likes of America, Russia, China, Iran or Pakistan has direct consequences far outside of its own borders so we should be taking an interest of the make-up of the people making the decisions in these countries.
Whether Obama or McCain find themselves in the White House would mean little to us if their decision making was restricted to just matters inside America but they are not, they make decisions that have direct consequences for other countries through conflict, diplomatic efforts, financial support or the withdrawal of support.
The present fiasco in the World financial markets shows just what happens when American money markets turn bad which has hit everyone, not just Americans, and is proof that we all have a stake on whose hand is on the American rudder.
Who is guiding the massive Russian arsenal is as important as who is guiding our own if Moscow decides to flex its recently rediscovered muscles, as is staying on the good side of emerging superpower China who is rapidly gaining the ability to shape a new World order.
Our own British Government has had a direct affect on the citizens in Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan and Ireland in recent years regardless of who these citizens had ruling them at the time.
For better or worse, we are all networked together and while it is true we don't have a voice in the elections of other countries, to think that they don't affect us while we sit in our homes moaning about the BBC banging on yet again about an election thousands of miles away, is completely wrong.
What my co-worker and others who are complaining about the amount of coverage given to the White House race don't seem to understand is that in this time of globalisation, what happens in the major nations DOES have an affect on all of us.
Whoever is running the Government in the likes of America, Russia, China, Iran or Pakistan has direct consequences far outside of its own borders so we should be taking an interest of the make-up of the people making the decisions in these countries.
Whether Obama or McCain find themselves in the White House would mean little to us if their decision making was restricted to just matters inside America but they are not, they make decisions that have direct consequences for other countries through conflict, diplomatic efforts, financial support or the withdrawal of support.
The present fiasco in the World financial markets shows just what happens when American money markets turn bad which has hit everyone, not just Americans, and is proof that we all have a stake on whose hand is on the American rudder.
Who is guiding the massive Russian arsenal is as important as who is guiding our own if Moscow decides to flex its recently rediscovered muscles, as is staying on the good side of emerging superpower China who is rapidly gaining the ability to shape a new World order.
Our own British Government has had a direct affect on the citizens in Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan and Ireland in recent years regardless of who these citizens had ruling them at the time.
For better or worse, we are all networked together and while it is true we don't have a voice in the elections of other countries, to think that they don't affect us while we sit in our homes moaning about the BBC banging on yet again about an election thousands of miles away, is completely wrong.
X-Factor Post Ruined
A radical Muslim cleric has issued a fatwa against the X-Factor because it is releasing a charity single for injured British troops in Afghanistan. Only he hasn't, the Sun newspaper did what it usually does and made it all up.
"I'm not familiar with the show and definitely didn't issue a fatwa against it" said Omar Bakri, the radical Muslim cleric in question which blows a big hole in the post i was shaping in my mind.
So i can't make jokes about how UK Muslims have responding by rounding every copy of 2007 winner Leon Jackson's debut effort for a mass CD burning session and police revealing that 4 men have been arrested for damaging 23 CD's.
Also out the window has gone the posts central idea of negotiating with our enemies and inviting a few of the top Al Qeauda boys to grab the mic and have a go on X-Factor, maybe giving them a special where they can communicate their views through song and then have them voted on by the nation.
That would have been followed by images of Bin Laden crooning 'Knockin' on Heaven's Door' and Ayman al-Zawahiri giving us his rendition of 'Stairway to Heaven' and a duet with Paul McCartney on (Tali)band on the run.
All gone. I'll have to think of something else to write about now.
"I'm not familiar with the show and definitely didn't issue a fatwa against it" said Omar Bakri, the radical Muslim cleric in question which blows a big hole in the post i was shaping in my mind.
So i can't make jokes about how UK Muslims have responding by rounding every copy of 2007 winner Leon Jackson's debut effort for a mass CD burning session and police revealing that 4 men have been arrested for damaging 23 CD's.
Also out the window has gone the posts central idea of negotiating with our enemies and inviting a few of the top Al Qeauda boys to grab the mic and have a go on X-Factor, maybe giving them a special where they can communicate their views through song and then have them voted on by the nation.
That would have been followed by images of Bin Laden crooning 'Knockin' on Heaven's Door' and Ayman al-Zawahiri giving us his rendition of 'Stairway to Heaven' and a duet with Paul McCartney on (Tali)band on the run.
All gone. I'll have to think of something else to write about now.
Friday, 24 October 2008
What Other Election?
It may have slipped by un-noticed but halfway around the globe there is an election going on.
While the voters bring an end to the marathon that is the US elections in 11 days, the New Zealand election still has fifteen days to run but it is not as straight forward as a party being voted in and another booted out.
New Zealand hasn't been run by a single party with a majority for over 50 years and the mainstream Labour Party and National Party have to cobble together a Government from other parties to take office.
This election is between the centre left Labour Party and the Centre Right National Party but why should we care about an election in a country that has more sheep than voters?
In 2008 the New Zealand Government set about renationalising assets it had previously sold off in a Thatcher style rush to privatise everything. A decision that turned sour with the Government admitting that: "Selling of our public rail system has been a painful lesson for New Zealand".
It has bought back the Air National New Zealand and sea ferry operations after they were run into the ground financially by private owners and was one of the few countries to keep control of it's financial system and out of the hands of private companies.
New Zealand may sounds like a Socialist's paradise but it may well be developing the blueprint to show the rest the way to go as the capitalist system comes crashing down around our ears and we set about buying back all the services and amenities our Governments recklessly sold off to the highest bidder in the Thatcher years.
Nationals John Key is presently holding a narrow lead in the polls over Labours Helen Clark but the decider is which of the large parties the likes of NZ First, the Green Party and the Maori Party join forces with. It's all very complicated.
While the voters bring an end to the marathon that is the US elections in 11 days, the New Zealand election still has fifteen days to run but it is not as straight forward as a party being voted in and another booted out.
New Zealand hasn't been run by a single party with a majority for over 50 years and the mainstream Labour Party and National Party have to cobble together a Government from other parties to take office.
This election is between the centre left Labour Party and the Centre Right National Party but why should we care about an election in a country that has more sheep than voters?
In 2008 the New Zealand Government set about renationalising assets it had previously sold off in a Thatcher style rush to privatise everything. A decision that turned sour with the Government admitting that: "Selling of our public rail system has been a painful lesson for New Zealand".
It has bought back the Air National New Zealand and sea ferry operations after they were run into the ground financially by private owners and was one of the few countries to keep control of it's financial system and out of the hands of private companies.
New Zealand may sounds like a Socialist's paradise but it may well be developing the blueprint to show the rest the way to go as the capitalist system comes crashing down around our ears and we set about buying back all the services and amenities our Governments recklessly sold off to the highest bidder in the Thatcher years.
Nationals John Key is presently holding a narrow lead in the polls over Labours Helen Clark but the decider is which of the large parties the likes of NZ First, the Green Party and the Maori Party join forces with. It's all very complicated.
Wednesday, 22 October 2008
God Not Taking The Bus
Whatever our religious leanings, i think we can all agree that whoever writes the slogans for the Church has been working with the incense in an unventilated area although i did think the 'CH CH...WHATS MISSING?...U R" was clever before slogans such as 'Thinking of suicide? Let the church help' returned to amuse us.In reply to the countless religious posters and bus advertising that surround us, the British Humanist Association has launched an atheist advertising campaign bearing the slogan 'There's probably no God. Now stop worrying and enjoy your life."
Launching around Christmas time, the campaign will see buses replace the current Alpha Courses advertisements with their anti religious message and featuring the addresses of atheist websites where readers can find out more about atheism.
One of the financial backers of the scheme, Professor Richard Dawkins, said: "Religion is accustomed to getting a free ride - automatic tax breaks, unearned respect and the right not to be offended, the right to brainwash children. This campaign to put out alternative slogans will make people think - and thinking is anathema to religion."
However the religio's seem to be quite happy about the no-god message being handed down from the BHA and number 603 from Muswell Hill with the Methodist church welcoming the "continued interest" in God, encouraging people to think about the issue. The Church of England said it would defend the right of any group representing a philosophical position to promote that view so we have to turn to the fundamentally crackers Christian Voice for a wacky quote.
"Bendy-buses, like atheism, are a danger to the public at large" they said in a disappointingly bland statement.
So there you go, there’s probably no God so stop worrying and enjoy your life. Don't spend time worrying about things that you have no power over, like getting hit by a bus.
Tuesday, 21 October 2008
Hunting Ban Not Working
2004 should have been a good year for those of us who like to see our countryside animals alive and well rather than being torn apart by dogs but the Hunting Act which we hoped would put an end to the barbaric blood sports, seems to have had the opposite effect.
Despite the ban, hunting is more popular than it was before it was introduced. Apparently the tossers that get a kick from killing the wildlife for fun just found other ways to continue being tossers, devising ways of circumventing the ban. Some shoot the fox after the hounds have chased it to exhaustion before the hounds tear into it. Others use birds of prey to kill it and the hunters know that the police have difficulty in keeping up with the hunt to enforce the law and rely on videotape evidence from hunt saboteurs who continue the battle to stop those who take pleasure in killing innocent animals.
The Conservative Party have hinted that they will repeal the legislation if they get into power which is yet another reason to keep the Cameron right wing far away from power. The current legislation needs to be tightened up with the loopholes being exploited by the hunters closed and a blanket ban that states clearly, hunting animals for sport is against the law and anyone who participates in it will be dealt with by the law. No ambiguity or back doors left open, blood sports need to be stamped out.
Despite the ban, hunting is more popular than it was before it was introduced. Apparently the tossers that get a kick from killing the wildlife for fun just found other ways to continue being tossers, devising ways of circumventing the ban. Some shoot the fox after the hounds have chased it to exhaustion before the hounds tear into it. Others use birds of prey to kill it and the hunters know that the police have difficulty in keeping up with the hunt to enforce the law and rely on videotape evidence from hunt saboteurs who continue the battle to stop those who take pleasure in killing innocent animals.
The Conservative Party have hinted that they will repeal the legislation if they get into power which is yet another reason to keep the Cameron right wing far away from power. The current legislation needs to be tightened up with the loopholes being exploited by the hunters closed and a blanket ban that states clearly, hunting animals for sport is against the law and anyone who participates in it will be dealt with by the law. No ambiguity or back doors left open, blood sports need to be stamped out.
Monday, 20 October 2008
Colin Powell's Judgment & Courage
Colin Powell is in the news it seems and on the receiving end of the plaudits for his judgment and courage in backing Obama. Ironically it is these same two characteristics that he lost so spectacularly in the UN in 2003.
Widely regarded as a dove in an administration of warmongering hawks at the time, Powell did all he could that February afternoon in 2003 to drive the UN to war in Iraq with his presentation that 'proved' Saddam had stockpiles of WMD's and was ready to launch Armageddon with them.
"We know from sources that missile brigades were disbursing warheads containing biological warfare agents" he said showing us satellite photographs of WMD facilities, chemical plants and quoting 'sources' tying Saddam to Al Queada and stating how he could "trace the story of a senior terrorist operative telling how Iraq provided WMD training to Al Queada" and that "We have no indication that Saddam Hussein has ever abandoned his nuclear weapons program".
All fabrication, all lies but Powell urged his colleagues in the UN to join America and Britain in invading Iraq. The UN rightly dismissed Powell's words and refused to back an invasion, leaving the US and the UK without the fig leaf of legitimacy they craved.
Two years on, a regretful Powell told ABC news: "I'm the one who presented it to the world, and it will always be a part of my record. It was painful. It is painful now," and described himself as a reluctant warrior.
In July 2007 Powell revealed that he spent two and a half hours trying to persuade George W. Bush not to invade Iraq, stating, "I tried to avoid this war."
Sorry Colin, you were an active supporter of war, cheerleading at the United Nations for a war that you admit you did not agree with and had doubts about but lacked the courage and judgment to speak out. You are as dishonorable as your colleagues and you must share the responsibility for everything disastrous that has happened in that country since and joining the Obama bandwagon should not cleanse you of your previous abhorrent indiscretions.
Widely regarded as a dove in an administration of warmongering hawks at the time, Powell did all he could that February afternoon in 2003 to drive the UN to war in Iraq with his presentation that 'proved' Saddam had stockpiles of WMD's and was ready to launch Armageddon with them.
"We know from sources that missile brigades were disbursing warheads containing biological warfare agents" he said showing us satellite photographs of WMD facilities, chemical plants and quoting 'sources' tying Saddam to Al Queada and stating how he could "trace the story of a senior terrorist operative telling how Iraq provided WMD training to Al Queada" and that "We have no indication that Saddam Hussein has ever abandoned his nuclear weapons program".
All fabrication, all lies but Powell urged his colleagues in the UN to join America and Britain in invading Iraq. The UN rightly dismissed Powell's words and refused to back an invasion, leaving the US and the UK without the fig leaf of legitimacy they craved.
Two years on, a regretful Powell told ABC news: "I'm the one who presented it to the world, and it will always be a part of my record. It was painful. It is painful now," and described himself as a reluctant warrior.
In July 2007 Powell revealed that he spent two and a half hours trying to persuade George W. Bush not to invade Iraq, stating, "I tried to avoid this war."
Sorry Colin, you were an active supporter of war, cheerleading at the United Nations for a war that you admit you did not agree with and had doubts about but lacked the courage and judgment to speak out. You are as dishonorable as your colleagues and you must share the responsibility for everything disastrous that has happened in that country since and joining the Obama bandwagon should not cleanse you of your previous abhorrent indiscretions.
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