It appears that 2025 left some unfinished global stories which will rumble on into 2026 and these include Keir Starmer's leadership of the country, the Russia/Ukraine War, the Epstein Files, Venezuela, China and Taiwan and Israel and Palestine so how do I expect these to play out over the next 12 months?
Keir Starmer is struggling and he must know it and the Labour Party certainly does because 2025 came to an end with some big figures in the Party maneuvering themselves into position should he fall or be pushed.
I don't think anything will happen and tinder will be kept dry until the Local Elections in May where a set of bad results, and nobody thinks they won't be awful, will probably see him and the Chancellor step down rather than be forcibly removed and hand the country over to a new pair who, hopefully, will be a bit more like the old Labour Party than they have been so far.
There is a reason why Vladimir Putin appears to be swerving the Europeans when it comes to talking peace because he knows that all the time Donald Trump is in charge of the peace talks, he can just string him along and play Trump who bizarrely seems to be coming down on Moscow's side despite them being the invaders and issuing demands of Ukraine to make peace but the Europeans are very much on the opposite side and are very keen to stop Trump bulldozing Zelenskyy out the way and rewarding Russia and I can't see that changing so I expect to still be talking about it next January.
The Epstein Files are not going anywhere and with millions of documents yet to be released, we are only at the start of it so this year will see us being drip fed photo's and documents which implicate some powerful people, including increasingly Donald Trump who will do his usual blustering of 'fake news' and 'conspiracy' but as even his own people are now turning against him as the evidence piles up he will either step down (unlikely) or try to deflect the attention by introducing even more Draconian laws in America or even starting a war.
The USA military has now blown up over 30 small boats coming from Venezuela with no evidence shown that they are drug boats and so concerned are many nations that they have stopped supplying the USA with intelligence but the Trump Government are threatening to take a step forward from their current actions and attacking Venezueala itself to remove Nicolás Maduro and replace him with a much more America friendly Maria Corina Machado who, as Trump said himself, would hand out Oil Contracts to them like sweeties.
At some point in the next 12 months it will probably happen but as America found out in a lot of conflicts recently, removing a leader is easy but keeping the peace afterwards not so much.
China ended the last year militarily encircling Taiwan who they claim is part of China but the sticking point has always been the agreement made by the USA to help Taiwan defend itself but President Xi must be looking on at what is happening in Ukraine and Israel and seeing two nations invading and murdering scores of civilians and the USA actually backing them and Trump is making no noises about stopping China, he is even visiting Beijing in Spring and expect Xi to start leveraging pressure on the US to row back its allegiance to Taiwan in exchange for economic easing, particularly of the rare Earth Minerals America are so desperate for. We probably won't see Taiwan invaded this year which will be all about laying the ground for it next year.
Just like Putin in Russia, Netanyahu in Israel has found Trump to be very amiable in allowing it to do what it wants when it comes to Palestine where it has been committing a Genocide and Netanyahu knows that he can string Trump along and make promises he has no plan to keep while scrubbing the Palestinians out of their land but the fly in the particular ointment is that he has elections in October 2026 and he knows that the only thing keeping him out of prison on fraud charges is the Presidency which he is unlikely to win so nothing much will change, and the ethnic cleansing of Palestine may actually be fast tracked, until late next year.
Friday, 2 January 2026
How Will 2026 Play Out?
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2 comments:
you confuse geopolitical conditions with leaders. long-term forces shape decades of action. ex, you brits had a major hand in setting up ww1 and ww2. this isn't about the leaders, but the strengths and weaknesses of nations. what you brits did, combined with german constraints insured war. it was a matter of year, not leader.
since 1947, the US has policed the world to counter the ussr/russia. the US enabled globalization to spread liberal democracy. both endeavors will soon end. it doesn't matter who is president. eventually the US is going to face geopolitical forces that require a change in global doctrine/strategy/policy.
obama was going to let iran be the regional power in the middle east. during trump's 1st year in his 2nd presidency, the US found a way to create a balance between israel, turkey, iran, and saudi arabia (we supported israel's obliteration of iran's 2 most impactful assets hama/hezbolla, and we broke their nuke program 10 years). there is a new balance in the middle east for a while.
russia has shown us all it has is nukes - they can only use them for defense (Mutually Assured Destruction has worked for 75 years). so, whether trump or another president, the US is going to stop defending europe, and stop subsidizing eu nations by ignoring eu vat's etc. the US will most likely remain in nato (until the eu drives the collapse of itself and nato) and trading partners with germany, france, uk, etc... but no more special deals that disfavor the US.
US-led investment in china benefited the US, europe, and china. but, china has a population decline problem coming, they are no longer a lucrative supplier, and after millennia of inner-focus they show the desire to threaten the region (japan, australia, south korean, etc.). now the US will shift focus from russia to asia with new partnerships. so why continue to insure oil flows from the middle east to china thru the indian ocean? no reason. lets move or disband that fleet. other than keeping the new middle east balance why US engage in northern africa? let the europeans do it.
pressures are changing. leaders are puppets of the times.
europeans were helping ukrainians die by supplying everything but troops (was it to drain the russian military - not nice of you), while buying russian oil - get off your high horse.
venezuela is not the uk's concern. it is US business. maduro was:
> courting the russians and chinese too much (50% of US exports go thru the gulf of mexico, US leaders will let it be threatened)
> driving criminals, uneducated, and unhealthy people toward the US (we have $35 trillion in national debt)
> a source of drug smuggling and likely human trafficking - small but they weren't trying to stop it on their end
> destabilizing nearby nations - setting up conditions for chaos in the region
> how can machado be worse than maduro? if she can rebuild the industry destroyed by hugo/maduro, venezuela might be able to feed its people and become stable
when the ussr/russia, was a threat to the US, the uk was the atlantic barrier for the US. today, japan, south korea, australia, taiwan are our pacific barriers v china. we won't let the chinese build naval stations on the pacific. don't count on china invading taiwan, or on the US letting taiwan fail...
> china is looking outward, but has an inward focused culture. they need taiwan if they want to exert power beyond asia
> china has barely held together for centuries because of economic conflict between its north and south, and between its coasts and western plains. this is still true.
> china's wars have almost exclusively been civil wars - no invasion experience
> china's military has not been "bloodied" - no experience
> china lacks troop transport assets
> taiwan and japan (certain to provide support) have defense systems focused on stopping troop transportation...
> US and japanese intell will see a build up of troops and ships - no surprise attack...
> the only way china will invade taiwan is if xi is as blinded as putin
trump has not been amiable with putin. can you not see trump figured out that the left hyper-index on words instead of actions. he plays the left and press like fools and yawl wallow in it.
> US still supplies ukraine - with increasingly sophisticated arms
> US still provides "live" targeting data to increase attack potency
> US still sanctions russia into near economic oblivion
> US under trump forced you 2-faced-euros to stop buying russian oil
> US under trumo has been destroying the global "shadow fleet" moving russian oil
and, there is no need to let putin have his way with the ukraine. you euros can put an end to it. you could have done it years ago, but for your "selfish" and "greedy" self-interest...
stop the 2-faced-trump-is-an-ass-europeans-are-superior bullshit. you are a selfish, self-interested bunch just like all of us...
read some real history and learn something about the basics of geopolitics... this isn't tea party gossip
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