The strongest El Niño in living memory is how the MET Office are describing the upcoming event in the Pacific Ocean but while Climate Change is not to blame for the event itself, it happens every 2-7 years and fluctuates in strength each time, it is taking place in a warming world which will increase the effects of the resulting extreme weather.
An EL Niño is declared when sea temperatures are more than 0.5C above average and are already measuring 2C above normal and still growing with latest forecasts suggesting that this warming could exceed 3C later this year at its peak and some other climate groups have projected something even stronger than the Met Office's forecast, perhaps even 4C above average.
There is growing evidence that weather patterns around the world are already being affected, with below-average monsoon rains in India and suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean but for the UK the effects will come during our Winter and puts us at risk of a very wet and stormy season although the MET are keen to point out that this is an almost unprecedented event unseen for 500 or even 1,000 years and they will only know nearer the time what is heading our way.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) says there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or strength of El Niño events although a 2021 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said that the intensity of El Niño appears to have increased since 1950, when compared with the period dating back to around 1400.
The effects will be felt most keenly in the areas close to the tropical Pacific with a greater risk of drought, flooding and wildfires in South America and Australia and disruptions to crop yields and the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization have already warned that this El Niño could threaten food insecurity for tens of millions of people.