Monday 27 May 2019

Analysing The EU Vote

On the face of it the Brexit Party wiped the floor with the rest of the field but a bit of analysis is called for because things may not be quite what they seem despite the line they are coming out with today.
In the European Elections anyone who wanted to vote for Brexit only had two parties to vote for, the Brexit Party and UKIP while anyone wanting to vote Remain had 4 options, The Lib Dems, Green, SNP and Change UK.
Heaven knows what Labour want and the Conservatives are all over the place as well and many traditional voters would vote for them anyway so we can ignore their votes.
In total, the two Pro-Brexit parties scored 44.9% of the vote while the four anti-Brexit parties scored 40.2% so despite Nigel Farage's gurning face all over the TV screens today saying it is a loud and clear call from the people to leave the EU, it's actually split along the same sort of lines as the referendum result.
The EU votes was seen as a 'free vote' where you could place your X beside anyone you wanted to without consequence so come the General Election, the electorate will revert to type and it will be the big two of the Conservatives and Labour scrapping it out again and all the parties that did so well last night, the Greens, Lib Dems and Brexit Party, will be way down the list.
What i do expect to happen is the Labour Party will tack to the left to try and sweep up the remainer vote while the Conservatives will veer even further right to try and snatch voters from the Brexit Party which will, give us a good old fashioned left v right fight again although it will leave the centre ground pretty hollow.

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