Sunday 1 January 2023

Wait And See On Another Beast From The East

Several newspapers are mentioning a possible Beast from the East cold freezing snap for Britain which will send sub zero temperatures our way and blanket the country in Snow mid January but just because it is in the newspapers doesn't necessarily mean it will happen, mainly because even the MET Office don't know and if anyone should know it's them.
The very simplified science bit is that the cold air over the Polar region is contained by the Jet Stream with encircles the cold air but the Jet Stream doesn't go in a neat straight line and wiggles and buckles depending on how warm the air from the equator is pushing up on it and how cold the air from the arctic is pushing down on it.
The stronger the Jet Stream, the more contained the cold air which keeps it at the Poles but when one side warms more and gets stronger than the other, it can cause the Jet Stream to buckle downwards or even split apart on one side and cause the cold air to slide down that side and if you are under that, you get the cold, snowy weather.
The MET Office follow this sliding and are reluctant to forecast anything more than 2 days in advance but they are seeing early signs that the heating is happening in Siberia which could cause any buckling and dipping, if it happens, to be over the North America and Western Europe side of the Globe.
The MET Office are keen to point out that it doesn't mean it 'will' happen, only that it 'might' and if it does, that's the direction it will come but there will need to be a succession of dominoes falling first including how warm Siberia gets which will determine how much of a buckle there is in the Jet Stream which in turn determines how far down the Globe the cold air reaches and whether in the UK we get snow and freezing temperatures or a slight dip in temperatures and rain.
There is an excellent Global Jet Stream Forecaster at Netweather which shows the state of the Jet Stream and the forecast up to the middle of January is for Britain to remain on the warmer side of the Jet Stream but the MET Office are saying they are 'watching it with interest' which some newspapers have taken as it's going to happen but i would go with the MET's Office Forecast of 'We don't know, it might, it might not'.   


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