Thursday, 23 April 2026

Hinting At A Super El Niño

 
The Met Office are not ones to send out scare stories and generally coach their language carefully which is why they are saying that: 'Whilst most climate prediction models favour the development of El Niño later this year, there remains a lot of uncertainty about how strong it might be and hence how much the world's climate and weather patterns could be affected but there are hints that this upcoming El Niño could become a strong event'.
Obviously some of the media have picked the phrase 'hints of a strong El Niño' and dubbed it as a 'Super El Niño' which is coming to the UK soon.
An El Niño is a natural climate pattern which occurs every 5-7 years where sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, weakening trade winds and which allows the warm water to flow back toward South America and messes with global weather.
In South America this can bring increased storms, flooding, and rain, particularly in the southern US, Peru, and Ecuador and severe droughts in Asia and Australasia but these have a further knock on effect for the rest of the Globe, including the UK.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM, the US Climate Prediction Center and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have also said their models are suggesting a strong El Niño which could effect global weather patterns with the UK weather facing an increased chance of a colder spell during the winter months.
The effects of El Niño in the UK are expected to start in late summer and last around until Spring 2027 so might be a good time to buy a new, thick winter coat although the last major El Niño event in 2009-10 was one of the coldest for generations, the one in 2015-16 gave us lots of rain but an unusually mild winter rather than extreme cold so get some water-proof shoes also, just in case.

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