Tuesday, 25 March 2025

Is The Next Pandemic Brewing?

Covid hasn't even left the building and we are waiting for the next potential pandemic with Bird Flu, or H5N1 Avian Influenza, the likeliest contender according to scientists.
The H5N1 virus has been found in Dairy Cattle in 16 US states and it has been detected in wild seals, foxes, dolphins, porpoises, otters and now sheep as the virus continues to now drift into mammals, especially ones we have close contact with, as it jumps species although the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) say it is still primarily a bird disease.
The UK is in a wave of H5N1, with large areas now part of avian influenza prevention zones and millions of poultry culled in recent months and the UK Health Security Agency, said: 'Globally, we continue to see that mammals can be infected with avian influenza however, current evidence suggests that the avian influenza viruses we're seeing circulating around the world do not spread easily to people - and the risk of avian flu to the general public remains very low.'
H5N1 is spread through contact with infected birds, or other species, including through touching their droppings and bedding and so far only one person working on a farm in the West Midlands has tested positive for Bird Flu but human-to-human transmission has not happened in the UK or Europe since bird flu first emerged in 1997 - but experts warn each infection increases the risk of the virus adapting to human hosts and causing a pandemic.
Probably burnt by the slow reaction to Covid in 2020, the government has ordered five million doses of a bird flu vaccine to prevent further spread between humans with people who work with birds are most likely to contract it by breathing in dust and mist generated by infected birds - or touching infected equipment or machinery.
Scientists at the University of Glasgow recently found that horses were also asymptomatic for bird flu, sparking concerns the virus could be spreading undetected.
In humans, symptoms develop between three and five days after exposure and can cause pneumonia, acute respiratory problems, and sometimes death in vulnerable people.
Human-to-human transmission is confined to a small number of cases in Thailand, Hong Kong and Indonesia and in America where it seems more rife, 70 human cases have been confirmed including one fatal one and another fatal case has been reported in Mexico, and a teenage girl in Canada became seriously ill from the virus last year.
'So far it hasn't been able to adapt enough to jump from human to human, so that's good news' said  Prof Hutchinson of the UKHSA but he stressed that: 'The virus is already doing a lot of the things that would count as early warning signs for a possible future pandemic - and every infection of a human is another opportunity for it to adapt so it is rightly being viewed with a lot of concern'.
So concerned but thankfully not overly worried yet.