Friday 9 June 2017

June Not The End Of May

In wonderful understatement, Theresa May admits the election did not go to plan and boy, did it ever.
The thinking, i presume, was that she would call the election early while Labour was in disarray and her majority of 12 would grow to anything between 80-120 and she would spend the next five years doing as she pleased.
Turned out Labour got their act together and she was an inept as it was possible to be and she not only lost her majority but is now in such a weak position that she is only able to make the numbers work by doing a deal with the Democratic Unionist Party in a coalition, and the DUP will demand a high price for their seats, and even then she will have to run as a minority Government at the whim of any rebellious minister who disagrees with her when she tries to pass any new laws. 
All in all, the can't fail gamble blew up in her face but as much as Labour are celebrating, we still face the prospect of another five years of Conservative rule, although one which will be much easier to defeat in the Commons.
My theory that the reason she went for the election three years early was because she knows what is coming with the Brexit negotiations coming to a head in 2019 and the inevitable tanking of the economy and upheaval which would not play particularly well in the election in 2020.
Can't blame her for being opportunistic, she saw a chance and went for it, but that it failed so miserably means the next five years of her Government, if it doesn't implode before, is going to be a tough slog and even tougher when the Brexit deal is sorted.
The silver lining is the rise of Labour and the demise of UKIP, a stain that hopefully has been washed away, but the Government can't paint this as anything other that a massive exercise in Government self-harm and Theresa May is in a far, far weaker position for the next 5 years than she would have been for the next 3 years if she had settled for what she had.

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