Friday, 4 January 2019

How To Tell The Weather For Year Ahead

My grandad had an Almanac and it would tell you the weather for the coming year which i thought was pretty cool although it never occurred to me until years later that the Almanac could give a years weather but the weather forecaster on the TV was very hit and miss about tomorrow.
After discussing this with a Meteorologist, she explained that the weather isn't 'random and the Almanacs use something called Weather Singularities which are high probabilities of certain weather types happening at the same dates based on geography, atmospheric conditions, the earths rotation, sea conditions and other sciency stuff which happens at the same time each year.
Noting only the periods with the highest probabilities, the year ahead for the UK looks like this.

5-17 Jan    Wet and windy period as the Atlantic becomes more active 87%     
18-24 Jan  Frosty as high pressure begins to affect the UK. 87%    

24 Feb -3 Mar 
High winds with snowfall a high risk to many areas 85%   
8-16 Feb           Coldest period of the year 56%   
26 Feb -9 Mar  Stormy and wet and windy weather as storms move in from the Atlantic 88%   

23-31 Mar  Stormy with showers 67%   

10-19 Apr  
The famous April Showers 71%   

17- 31 May  Dry and warm with high pressure over the UK and continent. 88%   

1-4 Jun       
Low pressure brings cooler weather and heavy, slow moving showers 77%   
10 - 14 Jun  Wet and windy weather 77%   
18 - 27 Jun  Wet and windy weather with heavy showers 77%   

10 -22 Jul       
Warm period for the UK as the Azores high extends over the UK 50%   
23 - 27 Jul       Heavy thunderstorms 77%   
31 Jul - 8 Aug  Period where the hottest day of the year is likely to occur 50%   

16 - 30 Aug  
The first of the Autumn storms arrive bringing cooler, unsettled weather 67%   

1 - 17 Sep  
  High pressure crosses the UK bringing fine days followed by showers 87%   
18 - 24 Sep  Autumn storms during this period 60%   

5 - 12 Oct           Wet and windy period bringing gales to the UK 67%   
24 Oct - 13 Nov  Wet and windy 100%   

14 - 24 Nov    Foggy weather  65%   
25 - 29 Nov   Wet and Windy 98%   

6 - 12 Dec     Wet and windy 98%   
25 - 31 Dec   The Atlantic brings gales and heavy rain/sleet to the UK 83%

So wrap up warm between 8th and 16th February when it's coldest, get out the sledge for the snow between 24 February and 3 March, buy a new umbrella at the start of wet and windy June, don't hang around under trees during thunderstorms between 23rd and 27th July, slap on the Factor 40 sunscreen between 31 July and 8 August and spend the time between Christmas and New Years Eve inside out of the wind and rain.

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