Tuesday, 15 January 2019

The Brexit Vote Today

After Theresa May delayed the original Brexit vote date in the face of a significant defeat, they will get the chance to either accept or reject her agreement today.
As usual, it's not straight forward so here is a breakdown of how things could pan out.

Looking at the numbers, the way things are almost certain to go are:

1 - House of Commons debate Theresa May's current Brexit plan and once finished the House of Commons Speaker will ask those in favour of the amendment to shout 'aye' and those against the amendment to shout 'no'. Plenty of MPs will shout 'no' so there will be a vote and MPs will then go off and register their vote.

2 - MP's then all file back into the Chamber and the results are read out.

3 - Mrs May loses and then has three days to come up with some next steps and present them to MPs.

The option for Theresa May are then:

4a - After three sittings she can just put the same deal to the House of Commons all over again.
4b - She can go back to Brussels for more negotiations and present an amended deal.
4c - The Opposition can table a no-confidence vote and trigger a general election.
4d - Mrs May calls another referendum with the options of her deal, no deal or remain in the EU.
4e - She could follow the David Cameron route and just resign

The first three are almost guaranteed, it is almost impossible for her to get the number of votes for her deal as it stands to go through so it's looking at the 5 options with 4b the most likely and it's back to the House of Commons on Friday 18 January but 4c and another Election a strong contender and 4d the most likely if she gets turned down again on Friday.
Hold onto your hats because this week could be very exciting times as Mrs May has ran out of long grass to kick Brexit into.

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