Sunday 3 November 2024

Trump or Harris: Who Do Other Countries Prefer?

Many World leaders are keeping a diplomatic silence over who they want to win next weeks US Election out of the necessity of having to maintain a working relationship with whichever side takes power but some have subtly signaled their preferences.
Moscow and Vladimir Putin are obviously team Trump as they had a warm relationship during his first term and Trump has said that he would look for a quick resolution to the Ukraine conflict which is widely expected to be the withdrawal of arms to Ukraine which will force them to 'negotiate' and allow Russia to hold the swathes of East Ukraine they presently occupy as well as push for an end of sanctions that the US and others has imposed on Moscow since the invasion
Hungary’s nationalist leader Viktor Orbán has said he will open: 'several bottles of champagne' if Donald Trump returns to the White House so safe to assume who he has his fingers cross for and in Israel Benjamin Netanyahu must feel buoyed by Trump saying that the Jewish state has never had a better friend in the White House than him and as Trump moved the American Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem which rode roughshod over the Palestinian's and international community who opposed the move, a Trump Presidency would allow Israel to do what it wants without consequences in Palestine.   
As for North Korea, a  high profile defector for the leaders inner circle told the BBC that Kim Jung Un views Trump as someone he can negotiate with over it's nuclear weapons program and in return the US lifting sanctions.
Officially China is staying silent but the BBC Foreign Correspondent has an interesting insight that within Xi's Government they are hoping for a Trump victory as they believe it would further erode the soft power of the US and in turn allow them to increase their own.
In India, the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, was an enthusiastic supporter of Trump four years ago as they saw him as a balance to China's growing power and as India has close links with Russia, and Trump is a keen fan of all things Putin, they would be a benefactor of a Trump 'friend of my friend' attitude.
As for for Europe, with the exception of Hungary, it’s Harris all the way with the UK leadership getting into a royal mess when it sent Party members to 'help' the Harris campaign but the EU see potential policies such as trade interrupted  and the Western backed war effort against Moscow at serious risk, especially as Trump campaigned against the US foreign aid package to Ukraine.
In a Yougov poll of why they wanted to win the US Presidency, it was a clean sweep for Harris with 81% going for her in Denmark, 73% in Sweden, 71% in Germany, 65% in Spain, 62% in France and 61% in Britain so no love for the Trumpian way in Europe.
As for the Middle East, the Democrats strong support for Israel during the Gaza war has generated widespread disapproval among Arab governments and communities but Trumps support for Israel only offers deeper resentment but although the Iranian administration is no fan, it is a little dirty secret that many Iranians believe he could topple the regime in Iran so are (quietly) keeping their fingers crossed for him.
Overall then most of the World are hoping it's Kamala Harris celebrating and Donald Trump trying to organise another storming of the Capitol Building and bleating about being cheated again.