Monday 22 April 2024

How Many Is Too Many?

Us humans are a hardy bunch, in the post 'History In 800,000 Year Old Air Bubble', i mentioned how approximately 70,000 years ago the entire human population was reduced to a few thousand following
a super-volcano eruption which caused a severe global volcanic winter of six to ten years and contributed to a 1,000-year-long cooling episode with temperatures dipping by -4.1°C (−7.4 °F).
A number of genetic studies have found that the human ancestor population greatly expanded from only a few thousand individuals that existed about 70,000 years ago and in 2022 we passed the 8 billion population mark so it may have looked a bit dicey for us but we did okay after all, maybe a bit too well because while it took all of human history until 1804 to reach 1 billion, we have been making up for lost time ever since.
In 1927 we numbered 2 billion, then 3 billion in 1960, 4 billion in 1974, 5 billion in 1987, 6 billion in 1998, 7 billion in 2010 and by 3037 it is projected we will hit the 9 million mark.
From 1 billion in 1804 to 8 billion in 2022 is only a matter of 218 years so we really didn't hang about with the reproducing and it was partly thanks to modern medicine and sanitation reducing infant mortality rates and medical science not coming up with the first modern contraceptive until the 1960's
The steep climb in the human population has not come without problems, such as polluting our land, air and sea's and using up the Earth's resources at an increasing rate.
Earth Overshoot Day, August 2nd in 2023, marks the date in the calendar when the human demand for Earth’s natural resources exceeds what the planet can generate within a year and today we need 1.75 planets to provide the natural resources for our consumption for a year. By 2030, we will need 2 planets.
According to the UN’s medium projection our population will peak around 10.4 billion in 2086, and will remain at this level for the remainder of the century although the 'high' end of the projection is  
14.8 billion by 2100 and the 'low' end 8.9 billion which is still way above the calculation that the ideal size of our species using the Earths resources would be around 2 billion people so are there now just too many of us?
The uncomfortable answer to that is obviously yes but that comes with the proviso that there are too many of us in the current way we are living so we need to be smarter and not use so much of the Earth's resources and ramp up the renewable energy sector whilst not polluting the only Planet we are capable of living upon which bizarrely, we seem reluctant to do but with humanity set to be around for many more centuries yet, reliant on a super-volcano literally not cooling our heels, we will have to find a way to rub along together and protect our environment to survive.

5 comments:

Liber - Latin for "The Free One" said...

more scientific models... more al gore "we are dead by 2016" gloom, more malthus "humans will over populate the earth by 1900" gloom.

nobody can touch the left for negativity
- racism is worse than ever
- sexism is worse than ever
- homophobia is the worst ever
- economic disparity is worse than ever
- all the rain forests are being destroyed
- the coral reefs are being destroyed
- the soil is being eroded away
- we are out of water
- acid rain will wipe out all humanity
- men get paid more than women even though women work twice as hard
- women soccer players don't make as much as men soccer players
- hate speech must be forbidden
- AI is unfair to minorities, women, and homosexuals
- democracy is on the verge of failure in the US
- Israel wants to kill all arabs, persians, and muslims (genodide)
- what else...

Falling on a bruise said...


- racism is worse than ever (nope, much worse before)
- sexism is worse than ever (nope, much worse before)
- homophobia is the worst ever (nope, much worse before)
- economic disparity is worse than ever (true)
- all the rain forests are being destroyed (true)
- the coral reefs are being destroyed (true)
- the soil is being eroded away (true)
- we are out of water (nobody has said this)
- acid rain will wipe out all humanity (haven't heard anybody say this)
- men get paid more than women even though women work twice as hard (haven't heard anybody say this)
- women soccer players don't make as much as men soccer players (true but that is because they don't generate the income male footballers do)
- hate speech must be forbidden (true)
- AI is unfair to minorities, women, and homosexuals (I haven't heard anybody say this)
- democracy is on the verge of failure in the US (no idea)
- Israel wants to kill all arabs, persians, and muslims (genodide) (nope, just the Palestinians on what they view as their land)

Liber - Latin for "The Free One" said...

racism, see, in the US since 1965 racism has radically declined and blacks have more civil rights and success than ever before in any nation (that has more than a 1% black population), yet leftists say it is worse than ever...

ditto sexism. never been as many women in executive roles in the US, female elected officials, and military leaders, but you say it is worse than ever... it is only in places like palestine which you support...

homophobia is much worse according to leftists despite the US passing laws (with large majority of votes) for same sex marriage...

yes, environmentalists (leftists that would destroy humanity to save trees) say it on a regular basis in the US

acid rain, really, you are a poor leftist (read about canadian leftists declaring it would wipe out the world in the 1970's - ps, history didn't start when you were conceived)

female athletes on the US womens olympic soccer team almost had cows because the men were paid more despite the mens soccer bringing in 40x the revenue. you really seem to be heads down on serious leftist topics...

hate speech is a right. just like snubbing people that use hate speech is a right. even if allowed, you leftists should not be able to determine what hate speech is because you don't know a good definition if it bites your ass - e.g. genocide

you don't know about AI abuse. geeze, what the hell do you do. black and female "scientists" and rights activists appeared from every direction to attack AI for biased predictions... good grief...

hillary, biden, schumer, gore, carter, et al leftist democrats say democracy was almost taken away on jan 6, 2021 and that if trump is re-elected democracy in america will be destroyed. you should be watching the the uk is 100%, completely dependent on the US for national defense and for economic success.

there is no such thing as a "palestinian" there are just arabs living in palestine. by the way, they are arabs that egypt, jordan, saudi arabia, et al don't like or want. and they are arabs that iran would kill if not for the utility iran gets from hamas (people living in palestine that openly declare the desire to kill all jews - aka real genocide...




Liber - Latin for "The Free One" said...

bottom line, after trillions of dollars spent on welfare, the advancement of womens rights, advancement of minority rights, reduction in pollution by the US and europe (completely undone by China, and completely undone by India, and about to be completely undone by Africa) leftists say everything is worse... dude, leftists are messed up intellectually and emotionally...

Liber - Latin for "The Free One" said...

recent news, but everything is worse, just ask a leftist...

Gay Clergy Ban Reversed

The legislative body of the United Methodist Church voted to repeal a 40-year ban on the ordination of gay clergy yesterday, one of several rule changes around sexuality adopted at their General Conference. The church is the second-largest Protestant Christian denomination in the US with roughly 5 million members, with another 5 million located abroad, primarily in Africa.

The 692-51 vote upends a church rule first implemented in 1984 that barred LGBTQ+ members from being ordained (see history). For decades, the conference—which meets every four years and acts as the church's highest authority—upheld the bans while recognizing the civil rights of LGBTQ+ individuals.