Sunday 12 June 2011

Is Syria next?

Seems like we have another problem with one of Tony Blair's friends. This time it is the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad brutally putting down a revolt and the question being quietly posed is - Will Syria be next for a NATO intervention?
British Foreign Secretary William Hague said this morning that no military action would be taken, as has happened in Libya, despite him describing the torture and human rights breaches taking place as 'unacceptable'.
The cynical will say of course not, Syria has very little oil beneath its ground unlike Iraq or Libya which is dripping with the stuff, but there wasn't any in Kosovo either but we went in there on humanitarian grounds.
Syria, unlike Iraq and Libya which were pretty isolated amongst its fellows, has some powerful friends who can cause havoc and destabilise other areas if they push the right buttons.
Friendly with Russia and China, allied to Iran and a backer of Hizbullah and Hamas, Syria could cause massive problems in Israel, Lebanon, Iraq and throughout an already highly volatile Middle East. The loss of Israeli friendly Egypt is already a blow to the West and huge protests against Israel are already manifesting themselves in Mubarak’s old country.
What is happening in Syria is abhorrent but if the West takes the Libya, Afghanistan and Iraq route and starts on a humanitarian mission to remove yet another brutal regime, it won't be confined to just Syria, it will engulf the whole region and ripple out to our own doorsteps.
Best to settle for the devil we know, however uncomfortable and unsettling that is, because the alternative is carnage.

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