Wednesday, 24 October 2012

Predicting The US Election Result

If only we could see into the future we could jog down to the bookmakers, put the life savings on a sure thing and spend the rest of our days being fed peeled grapes by hunky men in skimpy pants but alas we can't. Or can we?
If some shady character sidled up alongside you one evening last New Years Eve and said he could predict the outcome of every major election in 2012 you would dismiss him as a crank, but if he then offered you proof and 12 months later he had indeed predicted 100% correctly the election results in all the major elections of the year you may well begin looking up hunky grape peelers in the telephone directory. 
So, 'ere mate, wanna know the winner of the US election? I got a foolproof system, 100% accurate. It predicted Bush to beat Gore in 2004, Bush to beat Kerry in 2008, Cameron to beat Brown in 2010 and so far this year it has correctly predicted Chavez to beat Capriles in Venezuala, Hollande to beat Sarkozy in France, Nikolic to beat Tadic in Serbia, Morsi to beat Shafiz in Egypt, Nieto to beat Obrador in Mexico and Rutte to beat Samsom in the Netherlands.
So what is this money making miracle? It's Google.
I have long advocated search query volume as a barometer of the mood of the people and once again is it coming good on voter intent in elections.

US election 2000 and Google said Bush would beat Gore, and he did although it took a court decision and some dubious hanging chads but Google was just getting into its stride.

US election 2004 and Google said Bush would beat Kerry quite handsomely, which he did.

US election 2008 and according to Google its  Obama to take McCain. Right again.

Over to the UK and the 2010 election next and David Cameron was tipped by Google to beat Gordon Brown. Chalk another one up for Google.

Into 2012 and the French Election and Google picks Hollande to beat Sarkozy in a close run thing and as predicted, it's Mr Hollande who narrowly pips it to become the new French President.

From Europe to Africa and Egypt where the Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi got the nod from Google and squeezed out Ahmed Shafiq.

Serbia in May and in the contest between Boris Tadic and Tomislav Nikolic, Google says it's Tadic and the Serbian voters agree. 

Nieto beat Obrador in Mexico just as Google said he would and Google seems to be getting the gap about right also, Nieto won with room to spare.

Back in Europe the Netherlands election was close and Google gave it to Rutte to beat Samsom which he did narrowly.

The word was the Venezuelan election was going to be another close one but Google ignored that and decided Chavez would have a comfortable win which of course, he did.

Eerily Google has a perfect record this year on the big elections and below is the results for the 2012 American Elections.

It's close but with a fortnight still to go Obama is currently shading it. Maybe we should check back the day before to give us chance to draw out the life-savings and get to the bookmakers. 

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