Sunday, 3 May 2015

The 200 Deciding The Election

Google Trends is still predicting a thumping victory for Ed Miliband and the Labour Party but the BBC Poll of polls where they collate all the information from the other polls is predicting a dead heat with the Labour Party and Conservatives on 33% each.
Usually at this point you can have a good stab at who will win but this is the closest i have ever seen and we have the unknown variables of UKIP taking votes from the Conservatives and the SNP and Greens snipping away at the Labour ballots.
In my constituency the party i want to run the country for the next 5 years have no chance, they are too far behind and the leaflet pushed through my letterbox shows they are not spending time or money chasing it which can be best served elsewhere, so i will vote tactically and not cast the X for who i want to win, but lend my vote another party to keep out who i don't want.
Of course this can backfire as many Labour supporters who went with the Liberal Democrats last election to keep out the Tories only to discover the Lib Dems propped up the Conservatives to put them in power.
Usually i say you should vote for who you want to win but such is the way of the British voting system with some safe seats having remained firmly in one-party control since the time of Queen Victoria, over half of the 650 seats can be called now based on how 'safe' they are.
The seats targeted are the 200 marginal ones, places like Hampstead and Kilburn where the Labour Party have a wafer thin majority of 0.08% and Warwickshire North where the Conservatives hold a 0.11% lead.
What it all means is that in 364 seats the vote is already as good as decided, in 86 the result is expected to be the status quo maintained which leaves the outcome decided on just 200 constituencies or less than a third of the country so if you are not in one of those, you had better hope that your chosen party has made a decent fist of persuading the electorate there because these are the only places where the election is going to be won and where the pollsters should be asking the questions.

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