Thursday, 13 June 2024

WMO Thinking About Earthquakes

Mother Nature, at her worst, can be devastating and i would guess the worst, most disorientating thing to be caught in is an Earthquake.
The problem is that they are almost impossible to detect until one is happening but i do recall something a while ago about how the ionosphere warms prior to a quake due to gases escaping which has the effect of electrifying the atmosphere directly above the fault.
Not being a scientist, i am sure i am missing something because looking for any heating in the atmosphere above fault lines just sounds too simple to act as a predictive tool and nobody seems to have picked up on it because the World Meteorological Organisation is looking at rolling out the Japanese model of Earthquake detection around the World by 2027 although that is a bit misleading because it is more of an early warning system for when they occur, rather than before.
The WMO thinking is that minutes could save lives although they acknowledge that as the seismic waves travel at thousands of miles per hour they are very small gains, but gains nonetheless.
Scientists can have a best guess at when an Earthquake is likely to occur by studying historical data on fault lines but that is measured in decades, centuries and even millennia which may predict where but not when.
They can also use tremors as a predictive tool but sometimes small tremors are just small tremors so you wouldn't want to move a large portion of the population to a safe zone only for nothing to occur and do that a few times and people will become complacent and if a major earthquake does occur then some may just stay put.
The only current way, and the Japanese model that the WMO want to to emulate is to issue alerts once a quake has already begun to give people a chance to get to safety or take precautions such as taking shelter, moving into an open area or turning off water and gas pipes in their homes before the big shaking occurs.
In January the Japan Meteorological Agency sent out alert 6 seconds after it observed the first wave which they say bought valuable seconds but they are now advising Government on what is considered the best solution, not building on land more susceptible to Earthquakes and they have experience in the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant catastrophe which was damaged in an earthquake in 2011 and is regarded as the worst nuclear incident since the Chernobyl disaster.

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