When you lose a seat you have held for 60 years and is probably as close to a safe seat as is possible to possess, you have pretty conclusive proof that your Government is in trouble.
The voters of Glasgow East are the latest to pass an opinion on this Government and they have rejected it forcibly with a 23% swing away from the ruling Labour Party.
Some in Labour have privately reached the conclusion they'd be better off without Mr Brown but are aware that removing him would certainly be bloody and would lead to demands for a general election the party would almost certainly lose.
No-one is going to risk challenging for the leadership only to be totally annihilated at the General Election and be consigned to oblivion. Better to wait for the inevitable bloodbath and then step in to take over when The Party is at its lowest ebb.
And then there is the other option i feel should be considered, do nothing and let the Conservatives win the next election. Call it a tactical withdrawal and here is how i envisage it panning out.
Those in the know are forecasting difficult financial times ahead. House prices will continue to fall, food and fuel prices continuing their upward trajectory and pay increases pegged to below inflation as we sail into a full blown recession.
Financial experts are quoting between 24 and 36 months before we come out the other side and by then it is hard to think of anything other than a slow and painful recovery. Whoever leads this country through these choppy waters is on a hiding to nothing and that's where my gamble kicks in.
Call an election now, take the inevitable beating and sit it out in the safety of opposition while the inexperienced David Cameron and the Conservatives suffer the blows of a discontented public who by then will be ready to remove the party who had watched over them through the past 5 years of turmoil and be ready to take a chance on a new look, fresh, rejuvenated Labour Party.
It is a gamble but the only other option Labour have is to hold on for the next two years as the economy sinks even further and then get turfed out for the Conservatives to step in just as the good times are returning and condemning the Labour Party to a decade in the wilderness.
It may sound crazy but maybe the next election would be a good one to lose when you consider the long term picture.
6 comments:
An astute recommendation, Lucy. Considering that our fortunes in the U.S. are quite similar (limp-dick party in power is lesser evil) and my wariness of Mr. Obama, I might borrow your wisdom for my (oh-so-influential) platform.
How about the Liberal Democratic Party in the UK? Are they are credible option, Lucy?
Use it there o'tim and i will push for it here and lets see if we can't start an internatinal 'don't vote for us at the next election' campaign.
The Lib Dems seem to do well at a local level Stephen but their appeal is very limited on a nationwide scale, they seem to have been stuck around the 18% mark in all the polls for years and they seem content with that.
Lucy, be very careful basing a strategy on economics based on "Those in the know" In my experience, economic and market forecasting is a counter-intuitive proposition. First of all, a recession is defined as two continuous quarters of negative growth. We have had them before, we will have them again, and regardless of who occupies Number 10, or the White House. Second, first and second quarter GDP have come in positive, anemic yes, but positive just the same. The world economy has slowed, but the recession so many have been predicting, has not arrived yet. When the economy catches a cold, the media makes it out to be pneumonia or cancer, a little less panic and hyperbole might serve us well. The best indicator to use are the magazine covers of The Economist, and Time. When they have the panic covers on, the danger has usually passed, and the economic damage has already been done. It's always darkest before the dawn Lucy.
Amazing how quickly he has fallen Lucy - any ideas as to why? I mean he is no worse than anyone else, surely.
As i think i have proved time and time again Cody, economics and I go together like soapwater and a frenchman so i have to rely on people in the know or at the very least people in the newspapers.
There seems to be a few reasons ruth, his role in the Iraq War was the start of it for many but since there has been the economy, high tax on fuel, the 10% tax band he scrapped but tried to disguise as a
good thing but left a majority of the population worse off and also because he just seems out of his depth and doesn't inspire confidence.
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