Sunday 16 June 2024

NOAA Says It's Gonna Get A Bit Blowy

The problems with making a prediction is some smart-arse will come along after the event and mock it if it never happened and that is especially true with anything related to climate change because as we all know, there are some proper ignoramuses who bizarrely refuse to believe that the climate is changing because all that mountain of evidence isn't proof enough for them but then they are probably the sort of people who would need directions to make sure they are sat on the toilet the right way, so what ya gonna do?   
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have stuck their head above the parapet and have predicted that there is an 85% chance that due to favourable conditions for hurricane formation between the coast of Africa to the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, there will be 17 to 25 named storms (average 14), with 8 to 13 becoming hurricanes (average 7) and 4 to 7 will become major hurricanes (average 3).
The Hurricane season lasts from 1 June until the end of November and Hurricanes rated category 3 and above on the Saffir-Simpson scale are classified as major and the boffins believe that due to record high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and La Nina will help storms develop.
The NOAA have a good record in predicting Hurricanes, last year they predicted 14 to 21 storms and there was 20 but before the Climate Change deniers get their knickers in a bunch, Climate Change does not create more Hurricanes, it just takes the ones which are there and ramps them up so it could be a Tropical Depression which gets an extra kick from the warmer seas and develops into a Hurricane or what would have been a Category 2 Hurricane tips into a Category 4.
To go along with more powerful hurricanes, another trend the NOAA has noticed by comparing Worldwide Hurricanes over the last 70 years is that Hurricanes are moving slower so are dumping more rain so increasing flooding because anyone who attended science classes will remember being told, warmer air holds more moisture and Climate Change is doing a great job of warming the air.
Obviously i will be back in December to assess how the predictions have got on but if you are directly in the path of one of the 8-13 Hurricanes or 3 major ones then hold onto something and check in once you have your wifi, house or street back again.

4 comments:

Falling on a bruise said...

I will be checking in December.

Falling on a bruise said...

They got it right last year

Anonymous said...

That what it says in my post. Miss that bit did you?

Anonymous said...

So you missed it then.