We have all played the game that if a massive Asteroid was about to smash into earth what would we do. Personally mine involves David Boreanaz, a length of industrial sellotape and a tub of ice cream so Häagen-Dazs had better stock up because the odds of 2024 YR4 asteroid hitting Earth has risen again.
A few weeks ago the 100m killer Asteroid was 83/1 to smash into us and then that was slashed to 43/1 but now the boffins have been back on the slide rules and calculators and have said the odds are now 33/1 that it will cause 'severe damage' to whichever part of the Globe it hits at about 38,000mph.
The Asteroid is currently 27 million miles away and scientists have just a few more weeks to observe it before it disappears from view until 2028 when it turns around the Sun and heads our way with a likely date of December 2032 when it reaches us.
The shortening odds mean the Asteroid hasn't unduly concerned scientists though because they are stressing that there is no need for alarm and that the odds of an impact will fluctuate before it gets here anyway and would not be surprised if the impact odds drop to zero at some point.
The Asteroid's current trajectory takes it across the Southern Hemisphere and the Eastern Pacific Ocean, Northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia but the good news is that it's made of a rocky substance rather than more robust materials like iron, which is significant because it means it could break into smaller pieces if it enters Earth's atmosphere so all we might get is one hell of an light show.
Still, doesn't hurt to prepare so gonna need a bigger freezer to hold all that Bourbon Praline Pecan Ice Cream.
Tuesday, 25 February 2025
Gonna Need A Bigger Freezer
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1 comment:
scientists cannot be trusted.
1. assuming they are unbiased is indefensible and stupid
2. what assumptions did they use to calculate the odds of hitting earth?
3. what assumptions did they make about the damage it would do?
some reality:
> 75% of earth is water or ice
> 90% of russia is unoccupied
> half of china is unoccupied
> half of the US is unoccupied
> 90% of alaska is unoccupied
> 56/s of canada is unoccupied
> 90% of middle east land is unoccupied
> 90% of norway is unoccupied
> 95% of greenland is unoccupied
> 75% of australia is unoccupied
> 50% of africa is unoccupied
> 50% of south america is unoccupied
lastly, really, ice cream... not me, butter and eggs for me
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