The Earth is estimated to be able to hold 8bn people and as we are up to 8.2bn we are pretty much at capacity but the United Nations poo-poed my idea of Population Realignment where nations are moved to where the population would fit, it is just as well that the projections are that we will get up to 10.3bn and then start to decline.
For some countries the decline has already began with governments now offer financial incentives to encourage people to have children to help support the growing number of elders with 4 out of every 10 person aged 65 or over. The Japanese government called their demographic situation critical last year with its population dropping from 128 million in 2008 to 125 million today and is predicted to keep falling.
The population in China began falling in 2022 from 1.4 bn to 1.3bn which caused the Government to reverse its one child policy while in Italy the famously celibate Pope is sticking in his nose in and urging Italians to have more children to grow the wage-earning population and prevent the economy from collapsing as retirees draw on their pensions.
South Korea managed to reverse their decline thanks to an influx of foreigners, rising by 10% to 1.9 million people which boosted the total population by 0.2% to 51.8 million people.
In Britain forecasts of the number and proportion of those aged 65 and older, show that the UK population is ageing at a significant rate. In 2018, 18% of the total UK population was aged 65 years and over, compared with 10.8% in 1950 and a predicted 24.8% in 2050 of which by then i will be one where i plan to sitting around moaning about the younger generation and endlessly telling them how everything was much better in my day.
Monday, 27 January 2025
Sweet Child O' Mine
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declining population and aging population in europe is one of the major reasons the eu is going to have at least 40 years of economic problems - a big decline has already begun.
each nation needs enough young people (innovate and spend) to fund the government (welfare, infrastructure, and defense).
old people spend less, tend to need (at least get) more government assistance, and resist innovative changes.
the eu and every nation in the eu (except maybe france) is already facing economic issues that they cannot solve, and it is going to get worse due to demographic problems. as various eu nations struggle, historic rivalries will reemerge (that was real fun between 1915 and 1945). add in additional defense costs as the US gives the NATO reigns to the eu nations, and the eu nations will have to make some tough decisions:
- ignore russian expansion into eastern europe... urkaine is a start, not an end game
- continue buying russian energy or pursue green energy (run up more national debt, or cut social services, or raise taxes... yikes)
- increase the economic partnership with china (ha ha good luck as their decline is ahead of the eu's decline)
- dealing with turkey as it becomes a regional power once again (and a threat to many eu nations)
- involvement in Africa (a whole bunch of fascist nations not to mention Islamic extremism) for access to critical resources and energy
- stop or change immigration into eu nations. immigration works in the US because immigrants are subsumed into the US culture and the US culture adapts the best of immigrant culture; however, most eu nations isolate their immigrants... causing long-lasting internal conflict.
things will be just as challenging in asia as in europe
africa is a giant mess. no regional power to create balance. intervention by china, eu nations, uk, and the US. tyrants and desperate uneducated masses.
south america is dominated by cultures that resist governance and tend toward corruption and organized crime
so the nations with good demographics have huge barriers, and nations with declining demographics are caught up in a decades long decline...
but the global population is supposed to decline by 2100...
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