Wednesday 9 June 2021

Third Wave Arrives Before June 21

The much feared third wave seems to have made its way to the UK as the number of daily new Coronavirus infections hits 7,540 in the latest 24-hour period and now everyone is nervously eyeing that 21 June date to see whether the last of the restrictions are lifted.
Depending on who you ask, it is either a no brainer that the rising infections means the date has to be pushed back or the Government has to gird its collective loins and throw off the shackles but Boris Johnson is refusing to commit either way, just saying that he will look at the data and make his decision on Monday.
The case set out by the Medical personnel is that with infections rising the rise in hospitilisations will follow in two to three weeks and  ultimately a rise in deaths will come two to three weeks after that and to drop any restrictions now will just add to the numbers which would be on a par with the second wave which saw 40,000 new cases daily and over 1,000 deaths a day.
The case for opening is that the infection rise is in the unvaccinated and younger members of society and they are the ones who can best fight the infection, most notably the new Delta variant, and it is safe for the vaccinated older and more vulnerable group to be out and about now.
As the case to reopen is being made by businessmen keen to attract people back into their theaters, airplanes, clubs and pubs then it is in their financial interests to see June 21st as Freedom Day so my attention is on the medical and science people and they are clearly stating, loud and clear that although 77% of adults have now had at least one dose, only 44% have had both and we will need a number of 80% of adults to have had both doses to reach the much mentioned herd immunity but the sticking point is the 14 million children and teenagers under 18 who are not currently being vaccinated but can still still spread the virus so 80% of adults still only means 63% of the total population which is a way short of of herd immunity.
When the inquiry finally gets underway, the Government know they are to be roundly castigated for their lax actions so far and we learnt at Christmas what terrible and fatal consequences a bad decision can have so hopefully they err on the side of caution and announce a delay and i am sure that our TV's will be full of business people bemoaning the Governments decision to delay reopening but when it comes to deciding between people with our Health as they main concern against people concentrating on their business concerns, the Medical view should win out every time.

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