Saturday, 10 July 2021

A Prediction

Despite saying that the country is safe to reopen and once open following the Covid-19 outbreak, there is no going back and we will just have to live with it now, i am going to make a prediction.   
As i am say here at 18:00 on 10 July 2021, my app tells me that at present in Britain, we have 32,367 new daily cases, 34 deaths and 2,731 people in hospital and i boldly state that despite the vaccine success, by October 1st Britain will be back in lock-down again.
Experts are concerned that new cases will rise massively to somewhere between 100,000-200,000 per day and with a death rate from the new Delta variant of around 1%, 1,000 to 2,000 a day will be losing their lives.
Why such a gloomy prediction you may be wondering and i say just look at the UK Governments track record so far during the pandemic, and with the exception of the early vaccine procurement, they have got everything wrong at almost every step.   
They got the lock-downs wrong as well as the border controls, the eat out to help out, Christmas, test and trace, PPE, discharging hospital patients to care homes and face coverings and almost every medical expert from the World Health Organisation to The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies which advise the Government are saying the decision is wrong.
I hope i am wrong and that the current trend which is pointing towards another surge with all the precautions still in place is an anomaly but if it comes down to the decision of trained medical professionals or the guy who proudly stated that he was shaking hands with Covid patients before contracting Covid himself, i'm with the medical team.   
I'm sure the Government will be pouring over the daily figures and if they rise too high, they will drag us back into lock-down and that is where i expect us to be by the start of October, back to square one but with a population reduced by tens of thousands and the NHS overwhelmed going into the busy Autumnal and Winter months.
I sincerely hope i'm wrong and i will be happy to sit in this same seat on October 1st and hold my hands up and admit that i was hoplessly and woefully wrong and the UK Government got it absolutely right.

1 comment:

Falling on a bruise said...

Yeah, we can be a bit funny like that when a disease which has killed 128 thousand brits in just over a year and is still infecting 32,000 a day and increasing. Sentimental fools about not wanting to see people die I know. Obviously you have no qualms about it.