Monday 15 November 2021

All Over By 2026-ish

I found Boris Johnson's warning that the storm cloud were gathering over Europe and a new wave of Coronavirus could reach our shores if we are not careful a bit strange as we currently have a higher daily Covid-19 infection rate than any EU country thanks to his less than sensible Covid strategy of what the hell, let's just open up anyway.
Not sure what happened to his Plan B, over 200,000 new infections and 1,000 deaths a week obviously isn't enough to impose it, but he today announced that they are working on introducing a vaccine passport to prove who has been jabbed and who can therefore enter venues such as theaters, cinema's and concerts, a measure that has began to be rolled out in other countries.  
The UK Government released a report last week that shows they are working on an assumption that Coronavirus will be with us for a while yet and have three scenarios – optimistic, central case and worst case which suggest the pandemic will end between 2022 and 2026.
The optimistic scenario sees the virus peaking in 2022/23 and the worst case scenario will see if lingering until at least 2026 but the one they have most confidence in is the middle case where we will have some restrictions in place until 2023/24.  
How it will end is more clear cut with Government scientists predicting it will be manageable with vaccines and the virus will naturally mutate to become less deadly and cause milder illnesses although it will continue to kill but more in the vain of Flu and other respiratory diseases.
It will be the Woirld Health Organisation that declares the pandemic ended and they have said that they will not declare it until everyone has been vaccinated and as some poorer nations are still scrambling for the first vaccine while the West are talking up the third, it may be a while yet so plan for the worst but hope for the best as the old saying goes, or in the case of the current UK Government, plan for the worst and fully expect it.

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