Sunday, 19 April 2015

Worrying For The Labour Party

Of course we all want to see the back of David Cameron and the Conservative Party, they have been awful, and for a moment back there it looked as though UKIP was going to split the right wing vote and it would be all sunshine and lollipops as Ed Miliband and his band of merry men and women strolled into Downing Street.
While we did worry about a rampant Green Party taking left-wing votes, what we didn't reckon on was the Scottish National Party doing it.
At present the Labour Party hold 41 of the 59 seats in Scotland but with the rise of the SNP, Labour could be facing a meltdown north of the border and for every seat they lose in Scotland they will have to gain in England, Wales or Northern Ireland as well as capture the extra 68 they need to reach 326 and hand the keys to Ed so if they lose 30 up there, they will have to add another 98 without losing any seats down here.  
Tough call and since Nigel Farage and his UKIPPERS seem to have imploded, the expected splicing off of the Conservative vote may not be as severe as first thought.
Worst case scenario, the Conservatives gain power as the largest party and get to carry on what they have been doing unscuppered by the pesky Lib Dems but the likely scenario appears to be a coalition but David Cameron retaining power as Prime Minister and Ed Miliband falling on his sword.
With three weeks to go it can still all change and Google Trends is still showing a healthy lead for the Labour Party but as they are starting 48 seats behind the Conservatives, it may not be enough if the Scots leave Labour en mass for the SNP.

No comments: