Sunday, 14 October 2018

Could This Be The Week Theresa May Falls?

The imminent demise of Theresa May has been talked about ever since she took over from David Cameron in 2016 but she is still there ducking and diving but if she is going to fall then this week looks likely which is why it has been dubbed Theresa Hell Week. 
First up are the rumours that a further four members of her cabinet are preparing join the two already gone and quit if the Prime Minister tries to make a Brexit deal that is not to their liking but if Mrs may makes it to next Sunday with an Andrea Leadsom, Esther McVey, Penny Mordaunt and
Chris Grayling shaped hole in her cabinet then she can cope with that.
Secondly, and more troubling, is the Northern Irish Democratic Unionists, a party of just 10 MPs who are threatening to vote against the Government if they don’t get exactly what they want which is parity with the rest of the UK but which they won't get because of the border they share with EU remaining Republic of Ireland.
As Theresa May has a majority of 13 and there are as many as 40 of her own MP's not including the 10 DUP ready to vote against her, the Commons defeat resulting in a lack of confidence vote would either herald a bruising leadership challenge or usher in a snap election which would risk tipping the Tories out of office that would in all possibility put Jeremy Corbyn into Number 10.
The Labour Party have laid a trap that whatever deal Mrs May manages to come up with, it will not pass Labour’s 'six tests' because those tests were designed not to be passable so she can't rely on Labour votes saving her as the collapse of the government and a snap general election is exactly what Labour want.
This makes it very hard to see how Mrs May can strike any agreement with the EU for which there will be parliamentary approval as the opposition has no incentive to help her out and the Democratic Unionists are lining up alongside the Tory hard-Brexiters which makes the maths impossible for Theresa May to avoid a humiliating defeat regardless of what deal she brings back from Brussels this week.
In the background rumbles on the flat out lying over the Universal Credit system they are introducing so there may be some sympathy for Theresa May but then you remember the austerity, the cuts, the running down of the NHS, the Hostile Environment idea and the general awfulness of everything they have done and that their problems are self-inflicted and you think good, hope her week is as painful as everyone seems to think it will be.

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