Monday, 1 January 2018

What Will Happen In 2018

Here we go again with the calendar showing the start of the 2018th trip for the Earth around the Sun but although this year will be worse than last year, it will be better than next year and although i may not have the psychic ability of Psychic Nikki, we can have a good guess at what will happen.

Hurricanes
- The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration give a 60%-80% chance that 2018 will be another La Nina year in the Atlantic which means a repeat of the devastating hurricanes which destroyed so much of the Caribbean driven by climate change and warmer sea temperatures.

Putin - The 2018 Russian election this coming March, congratulations to Vladimir Putin.

Earthquakes - Since the turn of the century there have been 21 Great earthquakes and 227 Major quakes. The odds are that there will be at least one Major Earthquake (above 7 on the Richter scale) in Japan, Nepal, Mexico, Turkey and Iran causing serious damage and loss of life and one Great Earthquake above 8 on the Richter scale causing devastation and major loss of life.

Mass Shootings - CNN shows of the deadliest mass shootings in modern US history, the top five have come in the past 10 years (Las Vegas 58, Orlando 49, Blacksburg 32, Newtown 27 and Sutherland Springs 26). By the end of 2018, Sutherland Springs will no longer be included in the top 5 as more than 26 will be killed in one gun violence incident in the USA in the next 12 months. 

Donald Trump - With the Russian investigation growing ever closer to Donald Trump, the odds at Paddy Power are 4/7 that he will face impeachment proceedings before the end of 2018. For impeachment to happen would take a fair chunk of Republicans to side with the Democrats, it's unlikely to happen as per the two previous times it was attempted. Bookies refuse to offer odds on Trump being assassinated but Betfair nudges punters towards a blanket offer of Trump 'exiting the White House in 2018' at Evens.

Theresa May - She has had what the Queen once referred to as an 'annus horriblis', whatever she touched turned to stuff you really don't want to touch but still she clings on, mostly because nobody wants their fingerprints on the train wreck which is Brexit. As it is pencilled in for March 2019, and as nobody is set to move against her until after that date, Mrs May will not be unseated in 2018 and will continue to lurch through the next 12 months as Prime Minister, shedding ministers who will be stepping sharply away from her as she goes.

Labour - As the details of Brexit continue to leak out and the dogs dinner we are heading towards becomes apparent, the Labour Party will will switch it's party’s stance to Remain, immediately capturing the 48% of remainers and the sizable percentage of Brexiters who have wisened up to their stance and what it means for the UK resulting in a sizable Labour lead in the polls. 

Brexit - As the UK and EU negotiations go on it will become apparent that the choices are between no deal and off the edge of the cliff we go with all the responding devastating hits to the UK economy or what we have now with a deal where we pay to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union but without a seat at the rules making table, the clamour Brexit will subside as it finally hits home what
Brexit means and it not be officially cancelled but the March 2019 exit date will slide before being kicked into the long grass.

Royal Wedding - The marriage of Prince Harry and Meghan Markle is set for 19 May 2018, the same day as thew FA cup Final. Arsenal have been in the 3 of the last 4 Finals and i expect them to be there again causing a dilemma of whether to go to Wembley to watch them win a 14th FA Cup trophy or watch Harry get married. If Arsenal somehow don't make it then i have the dilemma of watching the Royal Wedding on TV or glossing the skirting boards and watching the paint dry.

4 comments:

Keep Life Simple said...

regarding hurricanes - bullshit. THERE IS NO CURRENT SCIENTIFIC DATA THAT LINK HURRICANE VOLUME OR FORCE TO GLOBAL WARMING.

NONE

Falling on a bruise said...

Those damn scientists with all those years of experience and knowledge, what do they know!

Keep Life Simple said...

ok, i'm gonna share this with you again. you should research it this time instead of just vomiting what you read from your self-supporting sources.

global warming is a condition that has been observed. BUT, the methods used have been questioned as the scientists have manipulated data, and the number and location of temp gathering stations questioned.

human impact on global warming is a hypothesis that seems likely, but there is much in question because we don't know all the forces at work or the actual impact of the forces. AND, other scientific hypotheses exist like the earth is 5,000 years into a "non-glacial" era (10,000 year cycle of cooling and warming) where warming is inevitable but has numerous ups and downs.

models that attempt to predict the impact of global warming on the environment have proven unreliable (because we don't know all the forces and their actual impact). you seem to ignore or forget these errors because your political views keep you from being fair and unbiased on every topic as far as i can tell. but, it is ignorant and unscientific to ignore the modeling errors and the many missed predictions. Thus, the predictions about 2050 and 2100 are ridiculous.

"hurricane season" prediction has been a huge waste of money. i have worked for an insurance company since 1982. the insurance industry (including my company - our actuarial department) in america started funding "hurricane prediction modeling" circa 1985. It was led by Dr. Gray. CSU engaged environmental, climate, NASA, and other scientists in developing hurricane season prediction models. The were many objectives: predict hurricane season activity; predict decade activity levels; predict hurricane season force; predict hurricane season landfall; other similar outcomes. after 35 years, millions of dollars, generations of scientists, advancement in computing, advancement in statistical modeling, and advancement in data access, at his retirement Dr Gray essentially said "it was a waste of time, flipping a coin is as good as our models."

go read his story in wikipedia. learn something.

Oh yeah, read the whole article in wikipedia. Not just the stuff that suits your views...

Falling on a bruise said...

If only my self-supporting sources weren't the Worlds leading climate scientists, oh well, the worlds top scientists and i will just have to stay in ignorance of an insurance salesman (since 1982) with no experience and Dr Gray who's work on global warming was turned down as not up to standard by his peers according to wikipedia.