Great debate on the radio today with a bunch of analysts all agreeing that under Donald Trump, rather than making America Great Again, he is finishing what the first George Bush started and has taken it far enough backwards on the global stage that it is giving way to a successor shaped by the emerging global powers.
With the recent Syria retreat being used as a watershed moment, the analysts gave three possible contenders for America’s crown as number one global superpower, the European Union, Russia and China.
If Trump was to win another term, they reasoned, then his hostility to International Organisations such as NATO and the United Nations along with his America First isolation and general unlikeability, will bring about the succession even quicker although Trump being replaced in 2020 by a more multilateral President who will not cede global leadership to others so easily could restore America’s reputation and delay the inevitable runner up role in the 21st century World.
Of the three competing wannabe's named, the problem i see with the European Union taking the top spot is that it is not integrated enough, old rivalries continue between the individual nations and rather than speaking as one voice as it does on issues such as Climate Change, it is divided on other issues with 28 leaders with different views, some left wing, some right wing, which leads for disagreements and arguments such as we see with the plan for an EU Army and sanctions on certain other countries.
If it can become a United States of Europe, rather than 28 nations trying to reach an agreement then it's chances would improve but closer integration is not likely anytime soon.
Russia is far too corrupt and authoritarian although under Putin it has moved into a position where it is in all the right places globally and mixing it with all the dominant powers but for its sheer size and power, it is too much of a loose cannon to command the respect of the other powers.
China is where i see the next seat of global power, it has been quietly expanding into other nations building infrastructure and pushing their own national interests and it is now confident, and economically strong enough, to assert itself against the other World powers.
The view that China is an authoritarian, undemocratic regime could prove a hindrance although that is softened by it's refusal to join in the West's devastating wars despite increasing its own military strength which so far has stayed in it's bases, relying on soft power instead to push its agenda along with a different type of working Governance.
The age of America may have began properly in 1989 with the demise of Communism but too many illegal wars and belligerent leaders along with an arrogance that the World is there for it to demand of what it will, has proved it's downfall and the manoeuvring for it's replacement has already begun with earnest.