Friday, 28 February 2014

Cool Heads Required In Ukraine

Ominous signs coming from Crimea in Ukraine as Russians are handing out Russian passports to Crimean's and it's ominous because that is exactly what happened in 2008 in the Georgian province of South Ossetia.
In the summer of 2008, Georgian villages in the territory of South Ossetia declared their independence from Georgia and Georgian troops were sent to the territory to restore order and bring the province back under its control.
Moscow, keen to bring Osettia under its own control, handed out thousands of passports to the people of South Ossetia and the day after Georgian troops arrived in the region, the Russian Armed Forces invaded Georgia, destroying its military, transportation, and economic infrastructure within and outside of the South Ossetian territory citing the necessity of defending Russian citizens living in South Ossetia from the Georgian military.
There are reports today of Russian envoys distributing Russian passports in the Crimean peninsula and fears are that Russia will once again use the 'protecting our citizens' as a pretext for an invasion and there are already reports that armed men have seized control of Simferopol airport in the Crimean capital.
As we saw in Georgia, this is the Russian play-book and it seems to be following the preliminaries to the Russian assault on Georgia.
Cool heads are required as the obvious splits in the east and west of the Ukraine means a civil war could easily become the outcome with an angry Russia in the mix.
 

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Why do you say Russia is angry?

Q

Nog said...

Are these the same cool heads that were required with Czechoslovakia in 38? I'm not sure being "cool" about letting folks invade each other in Europe is what is needed here.

-Nog

Lucy said...

Russia wanted to keep Ukraine under its wing (thumb?) and away from the EU where it could have NATO camped on its doorstep. Now it has lost its 'friendly' leader and about to elect someone who will look to EU and not Russia. Kinda like Cuba on the USA doorstep, very much like it come to think of it and look how the USA reacted to that.

You do seem very gung ho about it nog, i thought that after your last comment also but decided it must be the 5000+ miles distance doing that. I'm sure though that if you do not want cool heads, you will be volunteering if the hot heads get their way and it all blows up. Won't you?

Anonymous said...

Wasnt that during the cold war and there were no enemy nukes closer to the usa than northern russia? Yeah, that is a lot like the ukraine... Except no nukes, no cold war, and an election instead of a military junta. But i get it.

Q

Nog said...

There are many steps between strongly worded letters and UN security council consultations and global thermonuclear war. I don't think Russia would invade Ukraine if they thought the consequences were more than consultations and letters. Violation of a non-aggression pacts is never a good thing to let slide.

-Nog

Lucy said...

My point about Cuba was about having a country that was friendly with your 'enemy' on your doorstep. The election bit you might want to revisit though as they have just removed the elected leader which is what it is all about but anyway, glad you kinda got it.

Cool heads nog, not threats and warnings, cool heads. We have seen enough of what happens when the opposite types are running things already this century.

Anonymous said...

a friend of an enemy is one thing, I thought the issue with cuba was Russia using cuba as a nuclear launch pad.

wasn't the presidential thing an uprising of the people, a civil disobedience, as opposed to a coop, junta, or civil war?

q

Lucy said...

You think the USA wouldn't consider sticking an army base in Western Ukraine? They were considering sticking nuclear weapons in Eastern Europe as part of a 'shield' a while ago. How would the USA react to a Russian army base on it's doorstep in Mexico?

Keep Life Simple said...

sure the USA would put a base in the Ukraine, if the Ukraine was willing. I thought we already had some...

I just don't see Russia as being "angry".

I thought the shield was strictly defensive, but upset the russians because it neutralized their nukes, thus undoing MAD.

how would I feel with a Russian base in Mexico... not very threatened. nukes are a bigger concern.

q